In my professional career, I’ve had the chance to spend thousands of hours exploring theory, solutions, and mass data. I am a massive nerd.
Something piqued my interest lately: looking at a high stakes database, I found that the top red line winners at 5kNL+ didn’t have player stats that differed all that much from your average 100NL blue line reg.
But: these players won more than $5m over just 200k hands.
Big names like Linus, Taisto, and lol voidaments fall into this group.
Sure, a few percentage points were off here and there for key stats, but overall the profiles looked remarkably similar to low stakes regs who aren’t winning.
For example, compare the SRP IP PFR cbet (B) and B-B frequencies of both groups below. These stats are very important as they’re some of the common postflop stats in the entire game tree:
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5k Crushers: Cbet 69%, B-B 47%
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100NL Regs: Cbet 72%, B-B 48%
So why is it that some players are bluffing like gods, crushing the highest stakes, while weaker players rely on their blue line to just break even?
Well, digging into this question revealed some interesting answers that I’d like to share with you here. 🙂
1: Pros' Bluffs Are Incredibly Precise
Consider the following two rivers, played as BTN v BB in single-raised pots:
Which river is better for bluffing?
According to data, bluffing in B-B-B is sub-optimal on the average river.
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Every other major line (B-X-B, X-B-B, etc.) performs far better.
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The average reg defends close to the right amount against B-B-B.
However: every unique river is far from average.
This means that there are river spots in B-B-B that are amazing for bluffing, like one of the rivers shown above.
Pros understand this, and know how to find them reliably. This causes their overall stats to stay reasonably close to balanced, but their red lines (and winrates) to be miles ahead of the average player’s.
Interested in which of the two boards is better for bluffing? It’s AKQT2. To learn why, watch the follow-up video: https://youtu.be/BbN1KtVdd_A
Essentially, it boils down to two massive correlations I've found in MDA.
If you remember these two patterns, you'll have a much easier time bluffing and getting the desired outcome.
2: Pros Plan Ahead
The overwhelming majority of poker players do not have a plan post-flop. They’re simply making every decision on the fly.
In this sub and r/Poker_Theory, I read dozens of hand reviews where people explain their thought process on just a per-street basis. People say:
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“I checked on the turn because they had a timing tell,” or
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“I didn’t bluff because the card was bad for my range”
But very few players will say:
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“I usually check, because my bluffing plan is B-X-B. However, I decided to bet I know regs over-fold on this turn texture and will likely over-fold on the river.”
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“In addition, my player type is a bit more ‘fold-y,’ and this spot isn’t so bad for bluffing that even ‘fold-y’ regs will over-call. Betting small keeps their range wide, maximizing the EV of bluffing on the river.”
And there’s so much more nuance that can be added even here.
Without a doubt, this is the difference between a low stakes player and the absolute crushers I’ve had the pleasure to meet.
Let's Start with Single-Raised Pots (IP PFR)
As an example, I'll quickly teach you how to bluff in SRP IP PFR.
And that's pretty much the basics of it!
explains some of these concepts in greater depth, and also discusses some practical insights I’ve found, check out my latest YT video: https://youtu.be/BbN1KtVdd\_A
I break down bluffing in single-raised pots, setting you on the path to victory. 💪
You’ll learn from several key examples, like the comparison between Q♣ J♦ 3♥ Q♠ 7♦ and A♣ K♣ Q♦ T♦ 2♣.
🔥 Check it out! I'm confident that you'll love it :)
Note to mods: one mod messaged me and told me CTAs like this one are fine as long as I contribute a lot to this reddit, which I have! :) I’m a small time creator, and this just really helps me nerd out and teach poker full-time.
